The Exponential Nature of Technology
See where this sits in the topic map →Summary AI-generated
- TL;DR
- This chapter reviews the history of technology from pre-historical eras through the agricultural revolution and the first three industrial revolutions.
- Problem
- Technological development follows an exponential curve, making its evolution very hard to predict.
- Method
- Not specified in the abstract.
- Results
- Not specified in the abstract.
- Contributions
- Not specified in the abstract.
- Limitations
- Not specified in the abstract.
- Takeaways
- Exponential functions grow slower than expected in the short term and faster than expected in the long term, producing unpredictable technologies.
- Applications
- Not specified in the abstract.
- Topics
- History of technology; Exponential growth; Industrial revolutions
- For industry
- Not specified in the abstract.
- Why it matters
- Not specified in the abstract.
Abstract
This chapter provides a brief review of the history of technology, covering pre-historical technologies, the agricultural revolution, the first two industrial revolutions, and the third industrial revolution, based on information technology. Evidence is provided that technological development tends to follow an exponential curve, leading to technologies that typically were unpredictable just a few years before. An analysis of a number of exponential trends and behaviors is provided, in order to acquaint the reader with the sometimes surprising properties of exponential growth. In general, exponential functions tend to grow slower than expected in the short term, and faster than expected in the long term. It is this property that make technology evolution very hard to predict.